Caps: Round 1, Game 7

The Caps managed to scare me nearly to death, but got it in the end. Game 7 was the first time in the series where the team that scored first didn't win. I was really hoping that the Caps would get that first goal, since they play so much better when they have it. However, they did a pretty good job of staying in the game for the first two periods while they were being severely outplayed.

The first two periods were wrought with bad passes, poor puck-handling, and shaky decisions. But Varly stood tall in net when he needed to, and gave the boys in red enough time to regain their composure while the game was still in reach.

And I can't say enough about Federov's goal. The CSN boys Craig and Joe called it, saying that Federov would play a deciding role in the outcome of the game. I'm just glad they were right. I thought he'd screwed up a great scoring chance when I saw he was going to shoot rather than pass to Ovie, but he pulled it off brilliantly, thankfully.

Looking forward, the Caps start the second round on Saturday at 1:00pm against the Pens. NHL officials cannot be happier about this matchup, I'm sure, unless it was the Eastern final. Regardless, the media storm around this series is going to put to shame the one that surrounded the Caps-Rangers series, which was pretty substantial.

Right now, the public opinion is leaning toward the Pens winning this one (about 60% of the poll on ESPN), and one ESPN writer picked the Penguins to win in 7. I think a big reason why people are picking against the Caps is because they had so much trouble with the Rangers, which is understandable.

I'm picking the Caps to win in 6. The Penguins are definitely a better team than the Rangers. They have a better offense, without losing too much on the blue line or in net. The Penguins play a style that is much closer to that of the Caps, relying on a bit more finesse and fast puck movement to score. That said, the Caps match up well with the Penguins. Both sides have very good goal-tenders (as the rest of the league will soon discover, Varly is good), fast defensemen who love to jump in on offense, and some explosive offensive players, by the names of Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom.

Honestly, I think the biggest factor in this series will not be how the stars perform, but how their supporting cast performs. If the Caps third and fourth lines can perform and score some points, it will take pressure off of Ovechkin and the other first liners. This is going to be a long, physical series, coming not long after both teams got out of long, physical serieses. That said, if one team has to rely on their stars for all their scoring, that sides first line is going to get worn down. And in the battle of the supporting casts, I think the Caps have the edge. Their third and fourth lines were some of the most reliable against the Rangers, and were best able to apply pressure to the defense. Also, I think there is just a bit more talent distributed through the lines for the Caps.

Another factor I think going for the Caps is that they had such trouble in the first round. This is a young team, and it would seem that they were a bit rattled in the first few games. But they've gotten their feet firmly under them in the last few games. They also have that confidence that they can overcome anything, so I don't see them losing heart at any point in this series, even if they're dealt a bad defeat early on.

And lastly, they once again have home ice. If you didn't watch the last game, it was nuts. I know people say that hockey has the lowest amount of home-field advantage of any sport, but the Verizon center was deafening for games 5 and 7, and you know when you're being cheered on and when you're being cheered against, even if the fans don't make it clear.

And so, I will conclude this section with my prediction: Caps in 6, winning games 1, 4, 5, and 6.

Until next time,

-TES